PREREAL News Partners Structure Output
Data synthesis Analyses Predictability metrics

 

 

WP3. Development of predictability metrics for regional fire activity, and associated ecological and socio-economic impacts

 

Climate-fire relationships derived in WP2 will form the basis for the development of empirical forecasts of fire activity at the monthly and seasonal scales. Initially, similar statistical techniques to those used for climate forecasting will be applied in the context of fire activity forecasts. To predict regional levels of fire activity at decadal and century scales, we will feed future climate scenario data into calibrated DGVMs, integrating both direct and indirect (through changes in vegetation cover) effects of climate variability on fire activity.

 

Our goals will be

(1) Parameterization of ocean-atmosphere-fire linkages in a statistical framework to provide monthly and seasonal (100-2 months) forecasts of fire activity across the circumboreal zone,

(2) Parameterization of a process-based ecosystem modeling framework to provide decadal-to-centennial forecasts of fire activity across the circumboreal zone.

 

Finally, we will translate the resulting projections of fire activity into availability of ecosystem services (e.g. C storage). This step will allow us to evaluate ongoing ecosystem modifications and to assess the ecosystem vulnerability. We will address the following questions:

(a) Will climate change lead to the future natural fire activity exceeding its historic ranges of variability in terms of frequency of fires, their severity, size and seasonal distributions?

 

(b) What are the range and possible ecosystem and socio-economic impacts resulting from changing forest fire activity under various climate scenarios?

 

(c) What are the management solutions to minimize the impacts of changing forest fire activity across the circumboreal regions?

 

The knowledge that is should (a) enable national contingency agencies to better plan for periods of increased fire hazard and (B) allow national governing bodies to develop long-term strategies aimed at mitigating future fire risks.

 

 

(c) PREREAL Project   /   contact info(at)prereal.org