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Data synthesis Analyses Predictability metrics

 

 

WP1 Data accumulation and synthesis

 

The main goal of the WP1 is to provide broad regionalization of (a) fire activity across the circumboreal biome over the Holocene and at shorter, century-long timeframes, and (b) associated socio-economic impacts of recent (last 50 years) fire activity on modern societies. The project will accumulate five main sources of fire activity data: (a) charcoal particles from lake sediment cores, (b) fire scar-based dendrochronological reconstructions, (c) tree-ring reconstructions of fire weather indices (based on drought sensitive chronologies), (d) stand initiation maps, and (e) observational (forest statistics and satellite) data. As metrics of socio-economic impacts, we will use the proportion of the area affected by fires in the total exploitable area of productive forests, estimates of the economic losses due to fire activity and its ratio to the total value of forest ecosystem services (largely timber-based) provided to local economies.

 

The project will accumulate five main sources of fire activity data: (a) charcoal particles from lake sediment cores, (b) existing and newly developed fire scar-based dendrochronological reconstructions, (c) tree-ring reconstructions of fire weather indices (based on existing drought sensitive chronologies), (d) stand initiation maps, and (e) observational (forest statistics and satellite) data. As metrics of socio-economic impacts, we will use the proportion of the area affected by fires out of the total exploitable area of productive forests, estimates of the economic losses due to fire activity and its ratio to the total value of forest ecosystem services (largely timber-based) provided to local economies. We will specifically focus on extreme fire events hereafter Large Fire Years and Periods, i.e. years and periods with extreme drought and increased regional fire activity.

 

 

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