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WP2 Analysis of climate forcing upon circumboreal fire activity and development of predictability metrics


With the overall vision to identify drivers and region-specific temporal trends in the circumboreal fire activity, we have three specific goals:


2.1. How has the natural fire activity evolved during the Holocene (the last 10k years) across the circumboreal regions and what were the drivers of these changes?


2.2. What was the relationship between regional fire activity and large-scale circulation patterns expressed through different circulation indices?


2.3. Does resilience of global ocean and atmosphere systems allow for predictability of periods with regionally increased fire activity and what are the mechanisms of such predictability?


We will rely on three direct proxy records for fire activity provided by WP1. These will be paleo- and dendrochronological reconstructions, modern observational records, and a number of indirect proxies, reflecting the weather conditions conductive of forest fires and ocean conditions associated with periods of increased fire activity in different parts of the circumboreal zone. Specifically, as non-direct proxies, we will use reconstructions of the (a) the timing of the fire season onset, (b) fire season length, (c) summer aridity, and (d) reconstructions of ocean SST temperatures and ice conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. These parameters have been shown to relate to reconstructed fire activity at sub-continental scales.




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